MyBankroll Methodology
How we calculate your metrics, where the data comes from, and why you can trust us.
MyBankroll is a statistical tool. Every figure shown in your dashboard is calculated from transparent mathematical formulas applied to bets you log manually. This page documents exactly how those calculations work, their statistical reliability, and how we guarantee data integrity.
1. How we calculate your performance metrics
ROI (Return On Investment)
ROI = (Net winnings ÷ Total staked) × 100
ROI measures your real profitability — net profit divided by total staked, expressed as a percentage. Example: €1,000 total staked, €1,080 in winnings, ROI = 80 ÷ 1,000 × 100 = +8%. MyBankroll calculates ROI on every bet you log, in real time.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
CLV = (Bet odds ÷ Closing odds − 1) × 100
CLV compares the odds you bet at to the closing odds (just before kick-off). A positive CLV means you got better odds than the final market — it's the most reliable indicator of decision quality, regardless of outcome. MyBankroll captures closing odds from major licensed bookmakers.
Kelly Criterion
f* = (b × p − 1) ÷ (b − 1) × 100
Where b = decimal odds and p = your estimated probability, the formula returns the optimal percentage of bankroll to stake. MyBankroll also offers fractional Kelly (quarter, half) recommended for intermediate bettors to limit estimation errors. See our complete Kelly guide.
Winrate (success rate)
Winrate = (Bets won ÷ Total bets) × 100
Winrate alone doesn't measure profitability — it depends on the average odds. At odds 2.00, a winrate above 52.4% is needed to beat the bookmaker margin. MyBankroll always displays winrate alongside average odds and ROI to avoid misinterpretation.
Profit factor
Profit factor = Total winnings ÷ Total losses
An indicator borrowed from trading: a profit factor > 1 means you win more than you lose in absolute value. MyBankroll calculates this metric per sport, per bookmaker and per market to pinpoint exactly where you're profitable.
Expected Value (EV)
EV = (Win probability × Net winnings) − (Loss probability × Stake)
Expected Value calculates the theoretical average gain of a bet, based on the probability you estimate. A positive EV across many bets is the signature of a profitable bettor. MyBankroll uses EV to validate the value of each bet before you log it.
2. Advanced stats and cross-analysis
Streaks (winning/losing)
MyBankroll automatically tracks the length of consecutive winning and losing streaks. Statistically, even a bettor with a 55% winrate can experience streaks of 8-10 consecutive losses. This is normal and predicted by probability models — variance dominates on samples below 200 bets.
Granular stats (Tipster Pro)
On the Tipster Pro plan, MyBankroll cross-analyzes your data by day of the week, time slot (morning/afternoon/evening), odds range (1.01-1.50 / 1.50-2.00 / 2.00-3.00 / 3.00+), bet duration, and specific market. This granularity lets you identify your real edge.
Monte Carlo simulation
The Optimizer module simulates 10,000 random scenarios of your next 100 bets, respecting your historical odds distribution and observed winrate. The result gives you the probability of reaching a bankroll target, with a 95% confidence interval.
3. Where the data comes from
Your manually logged bets
All analytics data come from your own bets, manually logged in the app. MyBankroll has no access to your bookmaker accounts — it's a declarative tracking tool, not an aggregator. You retain full control over what you log.
Reference odds
For CLV calculation, MyBankroll fetches publicly available closing odds from licensed French bookmakers (Winamax, Betclic, Unibet, PMU). These data only serve as comparative reference — they don't determine your bets.
Supported bookmakers
MyBankroll is compatible with all French ARJEL/ANJ-licensed bookmakers (Winamax, Betclic, Unibet, PMU, Parions Sport, Bwin, etc.) as well as major European and international operators. You can also add custom bookmakers.
4. Statistical reliability of your results
Recommended sample size
No metric (ROI, winrate, CLV) is statistically reliable below 200 bets. Variance dominates below this threshold. MyBankroll displays a statistical reliability indicator on your metrics until you reach this minimum.
Confidence intervals
On main indicators (ROI, winrate), MyBankroll calculates the 95% confidence interval using binomial distribution. With 500 bets and a displayed ROI of +5%, the real interval ranges from +1% to +9% with 95% probability — essential context to understand the precision of your numbers.
Variance and luck
In the short term, luck can swing your ROI by ±15% around its true value. Over 1,000+ bets, this variance typically reduces to ±3%. MyBankroll shows your expected ROI trajectory vs. observed trajectory to distinguish luck from real skill.
5. Compliance and protection
Position regarding French gambling authority (ANJ)
MyBankroll is a statistical management software, not a betting operator. No bets occur on the platform. This classification places us outside the ANJ's licensing scope for gambling operators. We voluntarily apply ANJ recommendations on addiction prevention and minor protection.
GDPR compliance
Hosted in Germany (Frankfurt), full GDPR compliance, right to be forgotten respected (full deletion within 14 days on request), full data export available anytime via CSV format. No data is shared with third parties.
Responsible gambling
MyBankroll includes an alert module that automatically detects risky behavior signals (rapidly increasing stakes, undisciplined betting streaks, time-spent vs. profit ratio). If you recognize these signs in yourself or a loved one, contact begambleaware.org or your local gambling support service for free, anonymous help.
6. Methodology updates
This page documents the current version of our methodology. Any major change (new formula, threshold change, metric addition) will be listed below with its date. Historical metrics remain locked on the version in effect when the bet was logged, unless you explicitly recalculate.
- v1.0 — 2026-04-29: Initial version (public launch).
7. Questions, feedback, dispute
Have a doubt about a calculation? See an inconsistency in your metrics? Want to dispute a displayed figure? Email us at methodology@mybankroll.io. We respond within 48 business hours and publish important corrections in section 6 above.